North of Expected Value

Q1-2026 Portfolio Update : +5%

My summary of the first quarter 2026

Apr 6 • Max Francoeur

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March 2026

The Bias Caused by Uncertainty

The forgotten concept that explains why your best investments disappoint you and why neither Hormuz nor Al should change your process

Mar 30 • Max Francoeur

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January 2026

My sixth year of learning as an investor - 2025

Here are my notes in the form of a guide, containing my thoughts, readings, learnings, postmortem, reflections that I conducted in 2025.

Jan 12 • Max Francoeur

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Ma 6ème année d'apprentissage en tant qu'investisseur - 2025

Voici mes notes sous forme de guide, contenant mes pensées, lectures, apprentissages, postmortem, réflexions que j'ai menées en 2025.

Jan 11 • Max Francoeur

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The Special Situation Edge: The Art of Asymmetric Information

In special situation investing (like merger arbitrage), winning isn’t about analyzing past numbers. It is about mastering real-time information.

Jan 9 • Max Francoeur

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May 2025

Becker Milk Company - microcap, profitable and asset sales (liquidation) at 0.70x P/TBV

The end of an incredible story about a former convenience store giant in Ontario. This last run could give a +15% IRR, all backed by 26% cash and…

May 28, 2025 • Max Francoeur

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April 2025

Inter-Rock Minerals - Develops, markets, and distributes premium dairy feed supplements across the U.S.

A micro-cap in a niche sector (dairy feed supplements) at less than 7x EV/NOPAT with a growth of more than 15% over the last 4 years.

Apr 22, 2025 • Max Francoeur

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The Rapid Rise and Fall of Adeptus Health: A Working Capital Cautionary Tale

A story that highlights the importance of working capital. What are the reasons why companies need to track working capital and how can a bad business…

Apr 20, 2025 • Max Francoeur

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US Tariffs: Initial Impacts and Corporate Adaptation Strategies

Analyzing early 2025 US tariff impacts: How companies adapt via inventory surges, supply chain shifts, & cost strategies, facing potential economic…

Apr 15, 2025 • Max Francoeur

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Update on some special situation

I am always looking for “special situation” opportunities with a high IRR (25-50%). In a market (USA & Canada) that I find risky, I find it even more…

Apr 14, 2025 • Max Francoeur

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5 years of investment learning

Five years of investment, mistakes and learning summarized in clear principles to invest with rigor, lucidity and discipline in a complex market.

Apr 1, 2025 • Max Francoeur

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5 ans d’apprentissage en investissement - 🇫🇷

Cinq années d’investissement, d’erreurs et d’apprentissage résumées en principes clairs pour investir avec rigueur, lucidité et discipline dans un…

Apr 1, 2025 • Max Francoeur

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